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EURUSD Rallies to 3-Year High, ECB Expected to Cut Rates
BY TIO Staff
|April 14, 2025This week, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue cutting it's Main Refinancing Rate. Market analysts predict a reduction at Thursday's meeting, which would mark the third interest rate cut of the year and the seventh rate cut since April 2024.
ECB expected to cut interest rates
Financial markets are pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut from 2.65% to 2.40% on Thursday, 17th April. With expectations of two additional 25 basis point rate cuts by the end of the year.
The EUR/USD registered a three-year high last week, reflecting the destabilization of the US Dollar due to tariff tensions and speculation about de-dollarization.
Trade tensions and financial markets
Recent trade tensions related to the new tariff strategy introduced by the U.S. administration, have caused significant market volatility recently and elevated economic risk assessments.
Gold prices also made new all time highs on Friday, as traders and investors continued to flock to the asset due to elevated uncertainty.
EURUSD technical outlook
From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD has traded through a key resistance area at 1.1275. While the US Dollar Index (DXA) has touched a three-year low, potentially signalling further bullish momentum for the Euro.
However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in overbought territory on the daily and weekly timeframes, and price is trading around the upper level of a long term bearish price channel.
Traders will be watching closely for clues of a more decisive break of the 1.1275 price area for further upside potential or whether price will revert lower.
This week's high impact events
While the main focus this week will be on the European Central Bank's (ECB) Main Refinancing Rate and monetary policy statement on Thursday, there are other high impact events scheduled throughout the week too.
The following economic events and data releases have the potential to cause considerable price movements, thereby offering you both opportunities and risks. Stay informed and leverage our economic calendar to access real-time data and analysis as these key events unfold.
All times are GMT +3
Tuesday, 15th April
| 8:00 AM | GBP | Claimant Count Change |
| 2:30 PM | CAD | CPI m/m |
| CAD | Median CPI y/y | |
| CAD | Trimmed CPI y/y |
Wednesday, 16th April
| 8:00 AM | GBP | CPI y/y |
| 2:30 PM | USD | Core Retail Sales m/m |
| USD | Retail Sales m/m | |
| 3:45 PM | CAD | BOC Monetary Policy Report |
| CAD | BOC Rate Statement | |
| CAD | Overnight Rate | |
| 4:30 PM | CAD | BOC Press Conference |
| 7:30 PM | USD | Fed Chair Powell Speaks |
Thursday, 17th April
| 12:45 AM | NZD | CPI y/y |
| 3:30 AM | AUD | Employment Change |
| AUD | Unemployment Rate | |
| 2:15 PM | EUR | Main Refinancing Rate |
| EUR | Monetary Policy Statement | |
| 2:30 PM | USD | Unemployment Claims |
| 2:45 PM | EUR | ECB Press Conference |
How will you trade the markets this week?
Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Behind every blog post lies the combined experience of the people working at TIOmarkets. We are a team of dedicated industry professionals and financial markets enthusiasts committed to providing you with trading education and financial markets commentary. Our goal is to help empower you with the knowledge you need to trade in the markets effectively.
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