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Weekly Market Analysis for 28th July 2025
BY TIO Staff
|July 28, 2025The past week saw broad-based moves across global financial markets. Renewed optimism over trade agreements, strong earnings from major companies, and steady central bank policy underpinned risk-on sentiment. While the U.S. dollar continued its downward trend, equity markets set fresh highs and gold showed bearish moves as safe-haven flows slowed down.
Here’s a detailed look at what’s been driving the forex, indices, and commodities markets, so you can prepare for the trading opportunities ahead.
EUR/USD
The euro found support around 1.1600, due to a weaker U.S. dollar and positive risk sentiment. The European Central Bank left rates unchanged at 2.15%, with a cautious outlook resulting from stable inflation. Meanwhile, the U.S. entered its Federal Reserve blackout period adding uncertainty ahead of this week’s key policy meeting. Both the U.S. and EU also finalized relief on tariffs, helping to ease geopolitical tensions.
Technical Analysis
- Current Price: 1.1717
- Support: 1.1600
- Resistance: 1.1800
- Short term moving averages and oscillating indicators are pointing to a bearish trend. While the long term technical indicators are pointing towards a bullish trend.
GBP/USD
Last week, the GBP/USD experienced modest volatility resulting from recent mixed UK economic signals and fluctuating U.S Dollar sentiment ahead of key US Federal Reserve policy decisions this week. The currency pair is currently trading around a short term support level around 1.3400 that traders should watch closely.
Technical Analysis
- Current Price: 1.3430
- Support: 1.3400
- Resistance: 1.3850
- Short term moving averages and oscillating indicators are pointing to a bearish trend, while the shorter term indicators are pointing towards a bearish trend. Traders should watch the recent support level around 1.3400 closely.
S&P 500 trades in to record highs
The S&P 500 surged to new highs last week, underpinned by powerful tech earnings and declining U.S. jobless claims. Diminished trade risk also lifted optimism and the majority of stock earnings beat expectations. This helped to fuel buying momentum, however the markets remain cautious due to the Fed meeting this week.
Technical Analysis
- Current Price: 6,425
- Support: around 6,150
- Resistance: unknown, the market is trading into new all time highs.
- Short term oscillators indicate that the market could be oversold, however long term moving averages and oscillating indicators indicate a bullish trend. Traders should be prepared for any scenario.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold traded down from its recent highs as safe-haven demand faded. The market is within its consolidated range with overhead resistance around $3,440 per ounce. The outlook remains tied to Fed policy this week and inflation trends, as well as any resurgent geopolitical risks.
Technical Analysis
- Current Price: $3,338
- Support: $3,250
- Resistance: $3,440
- The trend is consolidating, short and long term moving averages and oscillating indicators are providing mixed signals.
Nikkei (JP225)
The Nikkei 225 advanced to near its all times highs last week as Asian equities tracked global gains after the U.S.and Japanese trade detente. Japanese exporters were at the forefront of the bullish move, also helped by yen softness and strong performance in technology stocks.
Technical Analysis
- Resistance: 42479 (recent all time high)
- Support: around 39,000
- Short and long term moving averages indicate that the Nikkei is in a bullish trend, however the oscillating indicators are neutral. Traders should be prepared for a break out above or rejection at the recent highs.
Upcoming catalysts
- U.S. Federal funds rate decision
- Eurozone GDP flash data
- U.S. employment data and NFP
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Stay informed with our economic calendar
This week's high impact economic events have the potential to cause considerable price movements, offering you both opportunities and risks. Stay informed with our economic calendar to access real-time data as these key events unfold. Our economic calendar is provided by Trading Central, with data from Morningstar Research Inc.
All Times are in GMT+3
Tuesday 29th July
| 5:00PM | USD | JOLTS Job Openings |
Wednesday 30th July
| 4:30AM | AUD | CPI q/q |
| 4:30AM | AUD | CPI y/y |
| 4:30AM | AUD | Trimmed Mean CPI q/q |
| 3:15PM | USD | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change |
| 3:30PM | USD | Advance GDP q/q |
| 4:45PM | CAD | BOC Monetary Policy Report |
| 4:45PM | CAD | BOC Rate Statement |
| 4:45PM | CAD | Overnight Rate |
| 5:30PM | CAD | BOC Press Conference |
| 9:00PM | USD | Federal Funds Rate |
| 9:00PM | USD | FOMC Statement |
| 9:30PM | USD | FOMC Press Conference |
Thursday 31st July
| Tentative | JPY | BOJ Policy Rate |
| Tentative | JPY | Monetary Policy Statement |
| Tentative | JPY | BOJ Outlook Report |
| Tentative | JPY | BOJ Press Conference |
| 3:30PM | CAD | GDP m/m |
| 3:30PM | USD | Core PCE Price Index m/m |
| 3:30PM | USD | Employment Cost Index q/q |
| 3:30PM | USD | Unemployment Claims |
Friday 1st August
| 3:30PM | USD | Average Hourly Earnings m/m |
| 3:30PM | USD | Non-Farm Employment Change |
| 3:30PM | USD | Unemployment Rate |
How will you trade the markets this week?
Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 37.80% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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