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The RBNZ's Forecasted Interest Rate Cut
BY TIO Staff
|Oktober 8, 2024The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is set to make a crucial interest rate decision on Wednesday, 9th October 2024. With the market forecasting a possible rate cut of 50 basis points, analysts are divided in their predictions whether the cut will be 25 or 50 basis points. The central bank's decision will be driven by the need to address inflationary trends, which have been fluctuating in recent months.
New Zealand's Central Bank Decisions and Expectations
After a previous rate reduction in August that brought the Official Cash Rate down to 5.25%, further cuts are anticipated to bring the rate to 4.75% in October and 4.25% in November. This strategy aims to align inflation with the bank's target range of 1-3%, as inflation has been showing signs of slowing from 3.3% in Q2 2024 to a projected 2.3% in Q3.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Strategic Moves
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decision to potentially cut rates by 50 basis points is rooted in its commitment to maintaining inflation within its targeted range. Economists predict that inflation will continue to slow, potentially reaching 2% by March 2025 and further decreasing to 1.7% by the end of 2025. This anticipated trajectory highlights the RBNZ's proactive measures to preemptively manage economic stability and foster growth.
The implications of these potential rate cuts extend beyond inflation control, as they are also poised to impact the housing market. With interest rates potentially dropping below 5%, mortgage rates could become more favorable, influencing housing affordability and prices. This development is significant for both homeowners and prospective buyers, as it could alter the dynamics of the New Zealand housing market.
Aligning Global Economic Strategies
This week's interest rate decision by the RBNZ is set to provide another crucial insight into how major economies are navigating the complex landscape of inflation and economic growth. The RBNZ's anticipated rate cut underscores a strategic response to inflation risks.
According to historical data from Trading Central on our economic calendar:
- The price change on the EURNZD for the past 6 events ended bullish 50% of the time, over a 4 hour period after the announcement.
- The average price range for the EURNZD over a 4 hour period after the announcement was about 134 pips.
Anticipating the RBNZ’s next move
As the week unfolds, all eyes will be on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate decision on Wednesday. With a potential interest rate cut in New Zealand, the week is expected to provide valuable insights into the health and direction of another major global economy. The outcome of this event will not only influence immediate market reactions but also inform about longer-term economic strategies and expectations for the NZD.
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